Russia is exploiting the space between NATO consultation and collective defence. SIB #010 examines how Threshold Conditioning can normalise cumulative hostile activity—and proposes Threshold Deterrence as a mechanism for imposing progressively greater collective costs without sacrificing escalation control.
SIB #009 examines how Russia–NATO competition is moving from cyberattacks, sabotage and electronic interference toward armed interception and the defence of critical infrastructure. Using the Lithuania drone incident and undersea activity near Svalbard as case studies, the brief assesses how Threshold Conditioning may gradually erode the practical boundaries of Article 5 without triggering conventional war.
SAGE Strategic Intelligence Brief #004 Threshold Conditioning—Winning Without Crossing the Threshold 10 August 2026 SAGE International Australia Author: Dr John… Read more >
By Kira Bre Clingen, Dr. Jonathan Z. Ludwig & Reagan Page OCCASIONAL PAPER 1 The simple truth is that Russia is… Read more >
By Dr. John Bruni Founder/CEO SAGE International Australia In the March 15 edition of The National Interest, renowned Australian strategist… Read more >
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