Baltic Security

Where Does Article 5 Begin? | Russia, NATO and the Hardening Grey Zone

SIB #009 examines how Russia–NATO competition is moving from cyberattacks, sabotage and electronic interference toward armed interception and the defence of critical infrastructure. Using the Lithuania drone incident and undersea activity near Svalbard as case studies, the brief assesses how Threshold Conditioning may gradually erode the practical boundaries of Article 5 without triggering conventional war.

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