THE FOCUS #117 | Strategy in the 21st Century | Sir Lawrence Freedman
Sir Lawrence Freedman joins Dr John Bruni to discuss modern strategy, Iran, NATO, escalation and the relationship between political aims and military force.
THE FOCUS #117 | Strategy in the 21st Century | Sir Lawrence Freedman
Sir Lawrence Freedman joins Dr John Bruni to discuss modern strategy, Iran, NATO, escalation and the relationship between political aims and military force.
The Space Between Articles 4 and 5: NATO’s Threshold Conditioning Problem
Russia is exploiting the space between NATO consultation and collective defence. SIB #010 examines how Threshold Conditioning can normalise cumulative hostile activity—and proposes Threshold Deterrence as a mechanism for imposing progressively greater collective costs without sacrificing escalation control.
The Laws of Thermodynamics as a Guide to International Affairs
Can the laws of thermodynamics help us think about international affairs? Patrick Tyrrell uses heat and entropy as a lens on spreading conflict, shifting alliances and the difficulty of containing a geopolitical chain reaction.
Where Does Article 5 Begin? | Russia, NATO and the Hardening Grey Zone
SIB #009 examines how Russia–NATO competition is moving from cyberattacks, sabotage and electronic interference toward armed interception and the defence of critical infrastructure. Using the Lithuania drone incident and undersea activity near Svalbard as case studies, the brief assesses how Threshold Conditioning may gradually erode the practical boundaries of Article 5 without triggering conventional war.
Russia’s Real Threat to NATO: How Far Can Putin Go? | Dr. Karl-Heinz Kamp | TFP #114
Could Russia and NATO stumble into war? Karl-Heinz Kamp joins John Bruni to examine hybrid warfare, European defence, deterrence and SAGE’s concept of threshold conditioning.
Russia’s Real Threat to NATO: How Far Can Putin Go? | Dr. Karl-Heinz Kamp | TFP #114
Could Russia and NATO stumble into war? Karl-Heinz Kamp joins John Bruni to examine hybrid warfare, European defence, deterrence and SAGE’s concept of threshold conditioning.
Threshold Conditioning—Winning Without Crossing the Threshold
SAGE Strategic Intelligence Brief #004 Threshold Conditioning—Winning Without Crossing the Threshold 10 August 2026 SAGE International Australia Author: Dr John… Read more >
Ukraine War: Attrition, Drones and the Rising Cost of Putin’s Strategy
SAGE Strategic Intelligence Brief #003 Ukraine War: Attrition, Drones and the Rising Cost of Putin’s Strategy 29 June 2026 SAGE… Read more >
