SIB #009 examines how Russia–NATO competition is moving from cyberattacks, sabotage and electronic interference toward armed interception and the defence of critical infrastructure. Using the Lithuania drone incident and undersea activity near Svalbard as case studies, the brief assesses how Threshold Conditioning may gradually erode the practical boundaries of Article 5 without triggering conventional war.
SIB #008 examines how a future Taiwan conflict could extend into space from its opening stages. With both China and the United States increasingly dependent on vulnerable orbital systems, counter-space operations may become central to command, targeting, communications and escalation. The brief assesses the implications for allied deterrence, Australian defence preparedness and national resilience.
SAGE Strategic Intelligence Brief #002 The Closure of Hormuz: The First Major Test of the Switzerland Agreement 22 June 2026… Read more >
SAGE Strategic INTELLIGENCE BRIEF #001 The Switzerland Agreement: Ceasefire or Strategic Pause? 18 June 2026 SAGE International Australia Author Dr… Read more >
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