SAGE International

Where Does Article 5 Begin? | Russia, NATO and the Hardening Grey Zone

SIB #009 examines how Russia–NATO competition is moving from cyberattacks, sabotage and electronic interference toward armed interception and the defence of critical infrastructure. Using the Lithuania drone incident and undersea activity near Svalbard as case studies, the brief assesses how Threshold Conditioning may gradually erode the practical boundaries of Article 5 without triggering conventional war.

First Shots in Orbit? Space Warfare and the Taiwan Contingency

SIB #008 examines how a future Taiwan conflict could extend into space from its opening stages. With both China and the United States increasingly dependent on vulnerable orbital systems, counter-space operations may become central to command, targeting, communications and escalation. The brief assesses the implications for allied deterrence, Australian defence preparedness and national resilience.

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