THE FOCUS #117 | Strategy in the 21st Century | Sir Lawrence Freedman
Sir Lawrence Freedman joins Dr John Bruni to discuss modern strategy, Iran, NATO, escalation and the relationship between political aims and military force.
THE FOCUS #117 | Strategy in the 21st Century | Sir Lawrence Freedman
Sir Lawrence Freedman joins Dr John Bruni to discuss modern strategy, Iran, NATO, escalation and the relationship between political aims and military force.
The Space Between Articles 4 and 5: NATO’s Threshold Conditioning Problem
Russia is exploiting the space between NATO consultation and collective defence. SIB #010 examines how Threshold Conditioning can normalise cumulative hostile activity—and proposes Threshold Deterrence as a mechanism for imposing progressively greater collective costs without sacrificing escalation control.
Where Does Article 5 Begin? | Russia, NATO and the Hardening Grey Zone
SIB #009 examines how Russia–NATO competition is moving from cyberattacks, sabotage and electronic interference toward armed interception and the defence of critical infrastructure. Using the Lithuania drone incident and undersea activity near Svalbard as case studies, the brief assesses how Threshold Conditioning may gradually erode the practical boundaries of Article 5 without triggering conventional war.
Russia’s Real Threat to NATO: How Far Can Putin Go? | Dr. Karl-Heinz Kamp | TFP #114
Could Russia and NATO stumble into war? Karl-Heinz Kamp joins John Bruni to examine hybrid warfare, European defence, deterrence and SAGE’s concept of threshold conditioning.
Russia’s Real Threat to NATO: How Far Can Putin Go? | Dr. Karl-Heinz Kamp | TFP #114
Could Russia and NATO stumble into war? Karl-Heinz Kamp joins John Bruni to examine hybrid warfare, European defence, deterrence and SAGE’s concept of threshold conditioning.
Winning the Strait, Losing the Passage? Iran and the Limits of Escalation Dominance
US military superiority may secure the Strait of Hormuz without restoring confidence in its use. SAGE Strategic Intelligence Brief #007 examines how Iran can exploit maritime risk, commercial uncertainty and threshold conditioning to challenge US escalation dominance without achieving conventional sea control.
Threshold Conditioning: War by Miscalculation
SAGE examines how economic coercion is reshaping the US–Iran confrontation into a wider test of Chinese, Russian and Iranian strategic thresholds. As each actor probes how far it can push without triggering direct conflict, repeated escalation risks becoming normalised—with potentially dangerous consequences.
Threshold Conditioning in the Indo-Pacific — Winning Without Invading Taiwan
SAGE Strategic Intelligence Brief #005 Threshold Conditioning in the Indo-Pacific — Winning Without Invading Taiwan 17 August 2026 SAGE International… Read more >
Threshold Conditioning—Winning Without Crossing the Threshold
SAGE Strategic Intelligence Brief #004 Threshold Conditioning—Winning Without Crossing the Threshold 10 August 2026 SAGE International Australia Author: Dr John… Read more >