Russia’s Real Threat to NATO: How Far Can Putin Go? | Dr. Karl-Heinz Kamp | TFP #114

Is Russia really preparing to attack NATO — or is the greater danger something more ambiguous?

Repeated hostile actions that remain below the threshold for major retaliation can gradually change perceptions of what constitutes normal or tolerable behaviour. The danger is therefore not simply that an adversary crosses an established red line, but that persistent pressure moves the line itself.

Don’t just stop your adversary from crossing the line. Don’t let them move it.

Bruni and Kamp also discuss whether Europe remains militarily weak, Germany’s changing defence posture, the political difficulty of attributing hybrid attacks, deterrence by denial, Russia’s relationship with China, the drone revolution, Donald Trump’s impact on the Atlantic Alliance and whether NATO could ultimately survive without the United States.

The discussion concludes with perhaps the most consequential question: could Russia and NATO stumble into a war that neither side originally intended to fight?